It is important that we stay focused on reality, as it presents itself, rather than react to our world emotionally. Emotion is for the gun control idiots who think that infringing on the constitutional rights of the law abiding will, in any way, reduce homicide. For those here that are invested in facts, here are some to consider:
2025 is hitting a record low homicide rate. This may be the lowest homicide rate since the 1950s. So much for the argument that access to guns is the problem, as there are twice as many guns in circulation compared to only a couple decades ago, and the scare of Covid and the summer of love ushered in ten million new first-time gun owners, yet the homicide rate is lower than ever, and all of the much-discussed “gun death” is drastically less than before. Sure, gangsters shoot each other in blue cities on a daily basis, but the rest of the nation is safer.
But why, then, does it seem that criminality is so much worse compared to “when we were kids.” The world seems more dangerous because we now have technology that puts every incident in our face. The reality remains that the United States was exponentially more violent in the early 1990s concerning actual homicide numbers.
However, there is a second reason that things appear more dangerous than every before: while the overall murder rate is down to historic lows, the nature of the violent threat has changed, dramatically, into something that was unimaginable in decades past. While the lower homicide rate is good news, the threat profile of the violent criminal actor has morphed into something that is extreme and terrifying, even compared to the violent past.
I am not one to declare that our world is worse than ever, because it is not. Do some research into the violent robberies that took place in the 1970s and 1980s in New York City, as just one example. The famous Stake Out Squad was killing criminals who, by default, would murder the bank tellers or employees of the locations they would rob. Look at the infamous Miami FBI shootout; the two bank robbers involved in that had left a trail of blood behind them, murdering armored car drivers and civilians in the swamps when stealing vehicles to use. To say that criminals are necessarily more brutal than in decades past is not exactly accurate.
However, in recent years crime trends have changed in two primary ways: there are more active killer attacks, and there is more mob violence. While your overall likelihood of being murdered is lower, the threat you may face is of a different, more extreme, nature. The threat profile is what should drive your mindset, gear, and tactics, not the statistical homicide rate.
Just look at some of the surveillance camera footage from the last several weeks, of numerous events in which a dozen or more attackers raid jewelry stores, or other such venues, and smash-and-grab all the merchandise. These episodes often turn violent with bystanders and store owners being assaulted, or killed. Obviously, the uptick in mass shootings speaks for itself, even as most so-called “gun violence” has trended downward. Finally, as you likely know, we live under threat of mass-scale terrorism that is likely to kick off within the near future.
Beyond deadly violence, simply perusing social media or the news shows that simple assaults are alive and well. Even if murder rates are down, there seems no shortage of people acting out violently and assaulting others, even over verbal disagreements. Society has, quite frankly, deteriorated, significantly. Many are more prone to lashing out with physical violence than in the past.
I would also comment that, while homicide rates are down, much of that statistic is likely offset by the drastic improvements in trauma care compared to thirty years ago. Victims of shootings, stabbings, and assaults are more likely to survive compared to in times past. Therefore, it should be clear that there are still plenty of bad actors out and about looking to maim and kill, even if the death rate is lower than previously, despite the best efforts of these predators.
With this information in mind, how should the armed citizen adjust their outlook and plans?
First, don’t let a drop in homicide rates change your diligence and preparedness. While less people die of violence, which is a very good thing, as discussed, the nature of violent threats has changed, dramatically. While still comparatively rare, the active killer threat keeps escalating. Gone are days when preparing for a fight with a crackhead in a dark ally was the primary concern for the armed citizen. I believe it is entirely appropriate to prepare for the worst-case scenarios, which entail rifle-armed attackers at greater-than-usual distances. This leads me to suggest carrying a capable auto loader, with at least one spare magazine. Snub revolvers and 380 pocket pistols are great for when you absolutely can’t carry more, but when in public places, carry a serious fighting handgun.
Second, all the way on the opposite end of the force spectrum, I believe it is more important than ever to be carrying a less-lethal tool. OC spray is the obvious choice for most people. In our modern society where many individuals seem more prone to physically assault others, through simple assault rather than deadly assault, it is imperative that you carry a less-lethal tool. Having capable hand skills is also important, but spraying someone and being able to break contact rather than going to hands and winding up injured or infected with pathogens is preferable. Get trained in the use of OC spray and carry it at all times, everywhere.
A low homicide rate is very good news, but the actual threat profile of the current violent criminal actor is extremely dangerous. Carry a serious fighting handgun all the time. Likewise, simple assault seems to be at an extreme high, so carry a less-lethal tool at all times and avoid conflict and interactions with stupid and aggressive people. Plan accordingly.
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